Showing posts with label there are no aliens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label there are no aliens. Show all posts

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Statistical probability of the existence of aliens

Think on this for a minute: IF the universe suddenly and for no reason exploded into the Big Bang; and that bang produced a world at the perfect distance from the Sun to support organic life; and IF humans arose from inanimate matter due to an unprompted chemical reaction under unreproducible and perfect atmospheric conditions which resulted in organic amoebas that evolved into humans over eons; then that would mean an astounding series of probabilities had occurred to allow the conditions of advanced life forms living on a habitable planet.

In the mathematics text Statistical Data Analysis by Glen Cowan, from Oxford University Press, it is explained that probability as relative frequency is:

"In particle physics, repeated collisions of particles constitute repetitions of an experiment. The concept of relative frequency is more problematic for unique phenomena such as the Big Bang. Here, one can attempt to rescue the frequency interpretation by imagining a large number of similar universes, in some fraction of which, a certain event occurs. Since, however, this is not even in principle realizable, the frequency here must be considered as a mental construct to assist in expressing a degree of belief about the single universe in which we live. ... The frequency interpretation is the approach usually taken in standard texts on probability and statistics."

"rescue" ... "not realizable"... "mental construct" ... "degree of belief"...

Hmmm.

Continuing, so IF there are aliens who have created civilizations advanced enough to build spacecraft, and IF they then had the inclination and science to find us, and then IF they actually make contact, then that also means that all of the above happened twice.

How much of a degree of belief in frequency probability do you have? For me, it is less of a leap of faith to believe in God. "For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse." I look at the wonder of the world and its creations and I see that there is a God who made them. It is that simple.