Showing posts with label yellowstone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label yellowstone. Show all posts

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Yellowstone: "No large eq imminent. But be ready anyway'

Quake update: Geologists of Jackson Hole: 'Just be prudent'

Geologists of Jackson Hole issue press release on Alpine quake yesterday. Not the implied concern that this latest eq occurred in a 'seismic gap' where eqs hardly ever occur...and this gap is at the top of the line from Yellowstone...

Jackson Hole, Wyoming - Local geologists, Wally Ulrich, John Willott and Peter Ward issued the following press release:

"An earthquake was felt at 9:15 pm on Thursday, January 15th in Jackson, Alpine, Etna and Thayne, Wyoming, and Idaho Falls, Idaho. According to the US Geological Survey, it was a magnitude 4.0 event located just north of Alpine Junction at a depth of 3 miles."

"This earthquake occurred at the south end of the extended Teton Fault zone along the eastern base of the Teton Mountain Range. Geologists call this area the “Seismic Gap” because of the lack of recorded earthquakes—a linear area along the large Teton Fault, which is unusually seismically quiet. The recent swarm of hundreds of earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park lie near the northern end of this “seismic gap.”

"This seemingly quiet seismic zone centered along the Teton Fault has been the site of magnitude 7. plus earthquakes in pre-historic times. The Faults have created the Grand Teton Mountains and shaped western Wyoming. Another magnitude 7. plus earthquake will fill this gap sometime within the next several hundred years. Some earthquakes are preceded by a perceptible increase in seismicity at one or both ends of the “seismic gap”. There is currently no reliable way to know in advance which small earthquakes are foreshocks to large earthquakes. There is no scientific basis to predict that a large earthquake is imminent."

"But this is a reminder to dust off your earthquake response plans..."

more info at the headline.

UPDATE: Another article came out today: a good article that explains a bit more. Including that this earthquake is "a real concern" to geologists. "Earthquake shakes region" from Jackson Hole Daily.

http://www.jhguide.com/article.php?art_id=4143

Monday, January 12, 2009

What are precursors to Yellowstone eruption?

In all the interviews with geologists regarding the Yellowstone situation, they always describe several indicators that the magma chamber may be rising. Precursors have been described as earthquake swarms, harmonic tremors, hydrothermal changes (geysers going off at different times or new geysers), lake bottom building or rising, to name the strongest indicators. Of course, they do remind us that they don't really know, because humans have not been around long enough to track supervolcanic eruptions, and these indicators could just as easily mean the restless giant is only yawning and may go back to sleep.

So far at Yellowstone there have been swarms, harmonic tremors, hydrothermal changes, and also ground swell.

"The Yellowstone “supervolcano” rose at a record rate since mid-2004, likely because a Los Angeles-sized, pancake-shaped blob of molten rock was injected 6 miles beneath the slumbering giant, University of Utah scientists report in the journal Science." Source

"The upward movement of the Yellowstone caldera floor – almost 3 inches (7 centimeters) per year for the past three years – is more than three times greater than ever observed since such measurements began in 1923, says the study in the Nov. 9 issue of Science by seismologist Robert B. Smith, geophysics postdoctoral associate Wu-Lung Chang and colleagues."

""Our best evidence is that the crustal magma chamber is filling with molten rock," Smith says. "But we have no idea how long this process goes on before there either is an eruption or the inflow of molten rock stops and the caldera deflates again," he adds."

Now we have this, above. A recent graph from USGS illustrating discharge cubic feet per second from Yellowstone Lake.

The trend upward from the past 79 years of historical data started at the same time as the swarm of quakes underneath the lake. The triangles on the graph indicate the average for the date over the years. Why is there more water pouring out of Lake Yellowstone? Some say melting snow. The problem is the temp there has been in the 20's.
The lake bed rising would be one explanation. Click chart to enlarge, source data here

Alternately, and more likely, may be a pending hydrothermal explosion in which underground water encounters a hot spot and blasts through the surface. Small hydrothermal explosions producing craters a few feet wide occur in Yellowstone perhaps once or twice a year. Large hydrothermal explosions leaving craters the size of a football field occur every 200 years or so, according to a 2007 paper co-authored by Heasler, Lowenstern and others, says this news article.

Whatever is going on there...is still going on. What it adds up to is anybody's guess..including the geologists.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Yellowstone: nowhere to hide

Dr. Michael Rampino, a Vulcanologist from NYU, was interviewed by Fox News on January 7th. I can't embed the video because they turned that off but you can click the link and watch it at their site. Here are a few of the statements. The clip is interesting, lengthy for a tv news spot, and has a lot of graphics shown while the Doctor is talking:

Interviewer: "What do you see in all these small earthquakes that have occurred since the day after Christmas?"

Doctor: "It made us all sit up and take notice that something is going on at Yellowstone. It is a restless volcano, most people don't know that when they go to the park they are inside the cauldron of a supervolcano that has erupted many times in the past..."

Interviewer: "Is this realistic, or are we just scaring people out there? I mean, people are writing in, thinking this is Armageddon..."

Doctor: "The probability that this will occur at any particular year is very small but we know it has happened in the past and we know that Yellowstone tends goes off on these large supervolcanic eruptions..."

Doctor: "We may be seeing the magma chamber doing things in preparation for a large eruption, or we may be seeing presagings of a small eruption, or we may just be seeing restless magma chamber moving around and things will go back to normal and we won't see an eruption for thousands of years."

Interviewer: "Old Faithful: not so faithful any more...is that a suggestion of what's happening below the earth's surface?"

Doctor: "We look for any changes. We see the ground bulging up, we see geysers going off at different times, we see earthquakes below the volcano...all these may indicate a lessening of stress on the volcano, or it may indicate the stress inside the volcano is getting greater. We really don't know enough about the precursors of a large volcanic eruption to make any kind of a reasonable prediction about what might happen at Yellowstone."

graphical interlude: 1,000-3,000 eqs per year at Yellowstone, in one week there have been 500+

Interviewer: "Doctor is this the kind of thing that keeps you up at night?"

Doctor: "It doesn't keep me up at night but it certainly keeps me thinking about what sort of major disaster may be hitting us from left field. We are not prepared for the global environmental effects that could affect the climate, for example..."

The upshot is that there would be nowhere to hide. Except in Jesus' saving grace and knowledge that life in Him is eternal. The Yellowstone incident has shaken the world, and caused more than a few to understand that self-sufficiency is illusory. God is in control, and with Jesus as savior there is nothing to fear. Ever.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Yellowstone: Small swarm on January 9

Small Earthquake Swarm on 9 January 2009 near northeast corner of Yellowstone Caldera

"A currently modest swarm of earthquakes began in the northeast corner of the Yellowstone Caldera, about 10 miles (16 km) NNE of the north end of the Yellowstone Lake swarm that was active in late December and early January. As of 1930 MST, 10 earthquakes had been located by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations, the largest with M= 3.3 and two other events with M >2.0. Located depths are between 2 and 4 km."

"Yellowstone Volcano Observatory staff and collaborators are analyzing the data from this and from the earlier Yellowstone Lake swarm and are checking for any changes to the thermal areas located near the epicenters. We will provide further information as it becomes available."

Yuh-huh.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Expert: Quakes could alter Yellowstone

Quakes could alter Yellowstone

JACKSON, Wyo. -- The recent swarm of small earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park could alter some of the park's thermal features but should not raise any concern about the park's large volcano erupting anytime soon, a researcher said.

More than 500 earthquakes have been recorded in the area around Yellowstone Lake in the past 10 days.

The earthquakes appear to be subsiding and caused no property damage. But they have left scientists and park officials wondering what it means for the world's first national park.

While the park has experienced earthquake swarms before, the recent activity is unusual because of its intensity.

Robert Smith, a professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, has studied Yellowstone's seismic activity for the past 40 years.

As director of the Yellowstone seismic and GPS network, Smith is overseeing a team of researchers in the Department of Geology and Geophysics who are reviewing data from each of the tremors. The team has analyzed 300 of the earthquakes so far.

"Earthquakes ... up to magnitude 3.9 are considered small," he said, explaining that the largest earthquakes in the past week or so were felt at Grant Village and Old Faithful. "...The concern that we have is that this is such an energetic swarm."

While Smith doesn't anticipate any volcanic eruptions as a result of the earthquake swarm, he said there is potential for hydrothermal explosions and more earthquakes.

[click headline for rest of article]

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Another take on tremors at Yellowstone

From a comment by a person posting at US News & World Report's last article (Jan 5) regarding Yellowstone:

"Geyser" Under Lake

Those of us at Above Top Secret noticed a continuing anomaly on the LKWY Seismograph that would challenge the above statement that there have been no changes to hot springs, etc. If you review these Seismographs from 1/4 - 1/6, you'll see a continuing pattern. On 1/4, this was about every hour and forty minutes. As of today, it's about every half an hour. We surmise that this may be a new hydrothermal vent (underwater geyser) and that the decreasing eruption times are a cause for concern because it suggests the bottom of the lake is heating at an increasing pace.

On these graphs, we're looking at the thin, repeating pattern. This Seismograph is calibrated to 500 microvolts, which means these eruptions would appear bigger on most Seismographs, which are set to 100 microvolts.

1/4/09: helicorder
1/5/09: helicorder
1/6/09: helicorder

Here is a graph of the Seismic eruptions, taking into account both the interval and length of the eruptions, which are between 3-5 minutes each:

This is very troubling. If this is a new vent and the water is heating faster, it would seem that either more vents will eventually appear to disperse the pressure or perhaps there is in fact a magma chamber close to the surface?

** note, the forum the contributor mentioned is a conspiracy forum

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Yellowstone situation update: quakes are stronger today!

Situation [culled from various sources]

At 11:32 this morning a 3.5 magnitude earthquake was reported 38 miles east southeast of West Yellowstone, Mont., in Yellowstone National Park — the latest in a swarm of earthquakes that has hit the area in the past week. The 3.5 tremor was followed this afternoon by a 3.2 magnitude quake at 12:40 and a 3.0 at 1:15. The swarm of tremors is the largest series of back-to-back quakes to hit the area in years, according to scientists. Today's quakes came on the heels of a series of tremors on New Year's Day, including a 3.0 at 6:30 p.m. and a 3.1 at 6:21 p.m. "The December 2008 earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years," said the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

The observatory said the National Park Service in Yellowstone is being fully informed of the ongoing seismic activity by the University of Utah and the U.S. Geological Survey. The Wyoming Office of Homeland Security is reviewing Earthquake Response Plans and also monitoring the seismic activity that has been felt by Park Service employees and guests at the park.

Over the past two days, more than 37 temors have shaken the earth below Yellowstone Lake, causing scientists to speculate on the cause and field questions on whether the quakes were a prelude to an eruption of the park’s super volcano.

“It’s an energetic earthquake swarm,” said Mike Stickney, director of the earthquake studies office for the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology. “I’m hearing reports that people in the park have been feeling some of them.”

Stickney said mild earthquakes swarms are relatively common for the Yellowstone region. This round of quakes, however, may be more vigorous than in recent years, though the cause is just as puzzling.

“There have been two other swarms this fall that come to mind,” said Stickney. “But they weren’t as many and they weren’t as large as what we’re seeing now.”

webicorder data:
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/index.html
http://www.henrysforkcountry.com/atf.php?sid=198

Thursday, January 01, 2009

More on Yellowstone, harmonic tremors

from Scientific American

"Any disaster fiend will tell you that Yellowstone National Park is long overdue for a monster eruption that could leave as much as half the U.S. under a blanket of ash. And there are rumblings the big one could be imminent in the wake of a series of 30-plus mini-earthquakes in the park over the past few days—too weak to be felt by humans for the most part but picked up by the seismometers at the University of Utah."

"After all, the geologic record shows that the giant caldera we affectionately call Yellowstone has blown every 600,000 years or so over the past 2 million years. The last big eruption? About 640,000 years ago when the park spit out about 240 cubic miles worth of rock, dirt, magma and other stuff."

Small earthquake swarms are not indicators of imminent volcanic eruptions, but harmonic tremors are. From USGS visual glossary:

harmonic tremor: Harmonic tremor describes continuous rhythmic earthquakes that can be detected by seismographs. Harmonic tremors often precede or accompany volcanic eruptions. The visual glossary has an example to look at, all the better to compare the harmonic tremors as seen on the University of Utah's seismos, which I posted earlier. Decide for yourself if they are ground quakes or magma tremors.

But here's from Rightpundits:
It should be noted that all the earthquakes have been intense and concentrated in one area, which happens to be above the magma chamber. [ see .gif below ] The scariest part of this story is the “harmonic tremors” that scientists have picked up. They are a low level constant rumbling, which usually indicates magma movement.
Continuing the Scientific American excerpt:

"In recent years, Yellowstone's caldera has been rising thanks to uplifting magma beneath it—leading to more cracks, hot springs and even more frequent eruptions of Steamboat Geysers. Paired with the earthquakes, such magma movement might presage an eruption—either big or small. Unfortunately, scientists can't really predict when the next such eruption will happen, and the range of possibilities is large: from later today to a million years from now."

"How will we know if we should start worrying? The real warning signs will be rapid changes in the shape of the ground as well as volcanic gases leaking from the ground, neither of which have been sighted—yet."

If indeed the supervolcano is getting ready to blow, it does not necessarily have to be a supereruption. It could be a small one or it could by a hydrothermic event. Time will tell. Meanwhile, the unusual swarm continues. And is should be noted that a day and a half ago the USGS started pulling the eq's from their list and have not posted all of them that have occurred, according to other sites that have different seismographs and are noting more activity than USGS is publicly posting.

MAP 2.7 2009/01/01 12:51:24 44.548 -110.361 0.2 (38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2009/01/01 10:13:52 44.541 -110.389 0.2 (36 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2009/01/01 10:12:57 44.325 -110.388 37.0 (42 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2009/01/01 10:06:51 44.529 -110.370 0.5 (37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2009/01/01 10:02:57 44.528 -110.346 0.2 (39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.6 2009/01/01 06:59:39 44.504 -110.340 0.9 (39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.1 2009/01/01 05:29:09 44.507 -110.309 1.5 (40 mi) SSW of Cooke City-Silver Gate, MT
MAP 2.2 2009/01/01 05:19:51 44.509 -110.350 1.7 (39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Looks Like Harmonic Tremors at Yellowstone Super Volcano

The unusual and concerning quake reports out of Yellowstone has everyone looking at seismographs until their eyes bug out. The unusually long and pointed earthquake swarm occurring since Dec. 26th has transformed into harmonic tremors, which the red circle depicts.



"It has been reported and noted by the USGS that an earthquake swarm has been occurring under Lake Yellowstone since December 26th. The attached webcorder display shows that after the tremor swarm activity died down this evening a new pattern of potential classic harmonic tremors has started and continues at the time of this posting. Harmonic tremors could mean lava is now moving under the Yellowstone super volcano."

"The USGS has made no updates since these tremors began."
Yellowstone webcorders can be accessed @ http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/index.html

"There have been more earthquakes than usual centered under the ancient Yellowstone Supervolcano's Caldera and the small quakes are enough that that has scientists concerned about a huge eruption from Yellowstone. Researchers are stumped as to why the earthquakes are stronger than usual."

"A report from Gene Byrd notes, "The park has thousands of earthquakes each year but these have researchers concerned and the report notes that they have long predicted that the Yellowstone supervolcano will eventually erupt again."

There is always a lot of seismic activity in and around the Yellowstone caldera. What is different this time are the length of the swarm, the absence of the tremors relating to a known fault, the fact that it is under the lakebed, the rising ground where the alleged magma bulge is, and they are extremely shallow. The BBC produced a series called "End Day", showing in movie form a la Ground Hog day, the same man awakening to the last day on earth, each time the earth ends differently. The six most likely scenarios are the backdrop, and one of these likeliest are the Yellowstone Supervolcano eruption. The clip intersperses scientific information in between the storylines. It's 9 min. I don't think Yellowstone Supervolcano is going to erupt yet, but what do I know. It has caught the interest and attention of scientists worldwide, though.