Yellowstone: nowhere to hide

Dr. Michael Rampino, a Vulcanologist from NYU, was interviewed by Fox News on January 7th. I can't embed the video because they turned that off but you can click the link and watch it at their site. Here are a few of the statements. The clip is interesting, lengthy for a tv news spot, and has a lot of graphics shown while the Doctor is talking:

Interviewer: "What do you see in all these small earthquakes that have occurred since the day after Christmas?"

Doctor: "It made us all sit up and take notice that something is going on at Yellowstone. It is a restless volcano, most people don't know that when they go to the park they are inside the cauldron of a supervolcano that has erupted many times in the past..."

Interviewer: "Is this realistic, or are we just scaring people out there? I mean, people are writing in, thinking this is Armageddon..."

Doctor: "The probability that this will occur at any particular year is very small but we know it has happened in the past and we know that Yellowstone tends goes off on these large supervolcanic eruptions..."

Doctor: "We may be seeing the magma chamber doing things in preparation for a large eruption, or we may be seeing presagings of a small eruption, or we may just be seeing restless magma chamber moving around and things will go back to normal and we won't see an eruption for thousands of years."

Interviewer: "Old Faithful: not so faithful any more...is that a suggestion of what's happening below the earth's surface?"

Doctor: "We look for any changes. We see the ground bulging up, we see geysers going off at different times, we see earthquakes below the volcano...all these may indicate a lessening of stress on the volcano, or it may indicate the stress inside the volcano is getting greater. We really don't know enough about the precursors of a large volcanic eruption to make any kind of a reasonable prediction about what might happen at Yellowstone."

graphical interlude: 1,000-3,000 eqs per year at Yellowstone, in one week there have been 500+

Interviewer: "Doctor is this the kind of thing that keeps you up at night?"

Doctor: "It doesn't keep me up at night but it certainly keeps me thinking about what sort of major disaster may be hitting us from left field. We are not prepared for the global environmental effects that could affect the climate, for example..."

The upshot is that there would be nowhere to hide. Except in Jesus' saving grace and knowledge that life in Him is eternal. The Yellowstone incident has shaken the world, and caused more than a few to understand that self-sufficiency is illusory. God is in control, and with Jesus as savior there is nothing to fear. Ever.

Yellowstone situation update: quakes are stronger today!

Situation [culled from various sources]

At 11:32 this morning a 3.5 magnitude earthquake was reported 38 miles east southeast of West Yellowstone, Mont., in Yellowstone National Park — the latest in a swarm of earthquakes that has hit the area in the past week. The 3.5 tremor was followed this afternoon by a 3.2 magnitude quake at 12:40 and a 3.0 at 1:15. The swarm of tremors is the largest series of back-to-back quakes to hit the area in years, according to scientists. Today's quakes came on the heels of a series of tremors on New Year's Day, including a 3.0 at 6:30 p.m. and a 3.1 at 6:21 p.m. "The December 2008 earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years," said the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

The observatory said the National Park Service in Yellowstone is being fully informed of the ongoing seismic activity by the University of Utah and the U.S. Geological Survey. The Wyoming Office of Homeland Security is reviewing Earthquake Response Plans and also monitoring the seismic activity that has been felt by Park Service employees and guests at the park.

Over the past two days, more than 37 temors have shaken the earth below Yellowstone Lake, causing scientists to speculate on the cause and field questions on whether the quakes were a prelude to an eruption of the park’s super volcano.

“It’s an energetic earthquake swarm,” said Mike Stickney, director of the earthquake studies office for the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology. “I’m hearing reports that people in the park have been feeling some of them.”

Stickney said mild earthquakes swarms are relatively common for the Yellowstone region. This round of quakes, however, may be more vigorous than in recent years, though the cause is just as puzzling.

“There have been two other swarms this fall that come to mind,” said Stickney. “But they weren’t as many and they weren’t as large as what we’re seeing now.”

webicorder data:
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/index.html
http://www.henrysforkcountry.com/atf.php?sid=198

Yellowstone animation of eq swarm

Very interesting animation of the eq swarm, from the good folks at the Utah observatory. Wait a few seconds, the animations start Dec 25 but the first of the intense swarm doesn't begin in the lake, until Dec 27. Watch the lake. Cool to watch it pop. No pun intended

Animation here

More on Yellowstone, harmonic tremors

from Scientific American

"Any disaster fiend will tell you that Yellowstone National Park is long overdue for a monster eruption that could leave as much as half the U.S. under a blanket of ash. And there are rumblings the big one could be imminent in the wake of a series of 30-plus mini-earthquakes in the park over the past few days—too weak to be felt by humans for the most part but picked up by the seismometers at the University of Utah."

"After all, the geologic record shows that the giant caldera we affectionately call Yellowstone has blown every 600,000 years or so over the past 2 million years. The last big eruption? About 640,000 years ago when the park spit out about 240 cubic miles worth of rock, dirt, magma and other stuff."

Small earthquake swarms are not indicators of imminent volcanic eruptions, but harmonic tremors are. From USGS visual glossary:

harmonic tremor: Harmonic tremor describes continuous rhythmic earthquakes that can be detected by seismographs. Harmonic tremors often precede or accompany volcanic eruptions. The visual glossary has an example to look at, all the better to compare the harmonic tremors as seen on the University of Utah's seismos, which I posted earlier. Decide for yourself if they are ground quakes or magma tremors.

But here's from Rightpundits:

It should be noted that all the earthquakes have been intense and concentrated in one area, which happens to be above the magma chamber. [ see .gif below ] The scariest part of this story is the “harmonic tremors” that scientists have picked up. They are a low level constant rumbling, which usually indicates magma movement.

Continuing the Scientific American excerpt:

"In recent years, Yellowstone's caldera has been rising thanks to uplifting magma beneath it—leading to more cracks, hot springs and even more frequent eruptions of Steamboat Geysers. Paired with the earthquakes, such magma movement might presage an eruption—either big or small. Unfortunately, scientists can't really predict when the next such eruption will happen, and the range of possibilities is large: from later today to a million years from now."

"How will we know if we should start worrying? The real warning signs will be rapid changes in the shape of the ground as well as volcanic gases leaking from the ground, neither of which have been sighted—yet."

If indeed the supervolcano is getting ready to blow, it does not necessarily have to be a supereruption. It could be a small one or it could by a hydrothermic event. Time will tell. Meanwhile, the unusual swarm continues. And is should be noted that a day and a half ago the USGS started pulling the eq's from their list and have not posted all of them that have occurred, according to other sites that have different seismographs and are noting more activity than USGS is publicly posting.

MAP 2.7 2009/01/01 12:51:24 44.548 -110.361 0.2 (38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2009/01/01 10:13:52 44.541 -110.389 0.2 (36 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2009/01/01 10:12:57 44.325 -110.388 37.0 (42 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2009/01/01 10:06:51 44.529 -110.370 0.5 (37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2009/01/01 10:02:57 44.528 -110.346 0.2 (39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.6 2009/01/01 06:59:39 44.504 -110.340 0.9 (39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.1 2009/01/01 05:29:09 44.507 -110.309 1.5 (40 mi) SSW of Cooke City-Silver Gate, MT
MAP 2.2 2009/01/01 05:19:51 44.509 -110.350 1.7 (39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT