Are we really at pandemic level 4?

Looking at the google map of confirmed swine flu cases and looking at the WHO's rules for pandemic levels, it looks to me like we are actually at level 6 not level 4...but that's just me.

Here are WHO's rules for phases of pandemic level:

Phase 1: In nature, influenza viruses circulate continuously among animals, especially birds. Even though such viruses might theoretically develop into pandemic viruses, in Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.

In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat. Below: WHO regions

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic

Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic

"The emerging threat of the Asian Avian Flu Virus (AAV H5N1) brings into sharp focus the vulnerability of modern, highly mobile and technological societies to viral or bacterial infectious diseases. The last major Asian flu outbreak, (H2N2 in 1957, which killed 69,800 people in the United States) took five months to reach the United States. With the advent of global jet travel, it is now likely that highly virulent disease strains will be transmitted to population centers around the world in a matter of just a few days."

We have seen the spread of this flu from Mexico City to Canada to New York to New Zealand to Israel in just a few days. It's out there. One iteration of the virus seems more mild, those in NYC and New Zealand are comfortably recovering. The Canadian who returned from Mexico was in hospital for 11 days, and the Mexicans are now suffering with a virulent iteration that kills.

* This new strain of influenza has shown it can spread easily from person to person.

* It has been found in several places and among people who had no known contact. This suggests there is an unseen chain of infection and that the virus has been spreading quietly.

* This can happen because respiratory illnesses are very common and doctors rarely test patients for flu. People could have had the swine virus and never known it.

* At least in the United States, it has so far only been found in people who had mild illness, another factor that would have allowed it to spread undetected.

* World Health Organization director Dr. Margaret Chan has said the new strain of H1N1 has the potential to become a pandemic strain because it does spread easily and does cause serious disease.

From the article: "Here are the key things that you need to do to protect yourself and your family, and to help restore order during a pandemic:"

A.) Raise Your Immune Resistance
B.) Be Ready to Fight the Illness
C.) Avoid Exposure.
D.) Stockpile Key Logistics.
E.) Be Prepared to Dispense Charity From a Safe Distance

Read more at the link. The most important things are to cover your mouth when you cough and to instruct kids to cover their mouths. Coughs are weapons. Also, frequent hand-washing is a must, with warm water and anti-bacterial soap or alcohol hand sanitizer. Reducing or eliminating attendance at large-scale events is also a strongly recommended preventative.

Anyway, that is some information or you and I highly recommend reading the article!

Mexico City closes museums, libraries, theaters

Mexico City closes museums to stop flu outbreak

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico's federal government has closed museums, libraries, and state-run theaters as well as schools in its overcrowded capital to stop a swine flu outbreak authorities say may have killed as many as 60 people.

The government already shut down schools across Mexico City Friday in hopes of containing the outbreak that has sickened more than 900 people. World health officials worry a global flu epidemic could spread from the city of 20 million.

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Mexican officials have pushed back the deadline for filing national taxes for one week.

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Also, CA has opened its joint operations center to combat the flu in California

Mexico Links Sickness, Deaths to Swine Flu

Fox News Reporting

Mexico Links Sickness, Deaths to Swine Flu

"The White House is closely following the outbreak of a new strain of swine flu in the United States and President Barack Obama has been informed, an administration official said Friday."

"The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the virus in the United States was a never-before-seen mixture of viruses typical among pigs, birds and humans. All seven American patients, who came down with the illness, have recovered. But it has also broken out in Mexico, killing at least 16 people and sickening more than 800."

Note that other sources put the death toll at nearly 60.

Now MSNBC reports the flu strains in Mexico and US are linked:

The unique strain of swine flu found in seven people in California in Texas has been connected to the deadly flu that has broken out in Mexico, killing as many as 60 people, NBC News has confirmed.

The strain, identical in both countries, has never been seen before and is raising fears of a possible pandemic.

The World Health Organization said it was concerned at what it called hundreds of "influenza-like" cases in Mexico, and also about the confirmed outbreak of the new strain of swine flu in the United States.

Mexico canceled classes for millions of children in its sprawling capital city and surrounding area on Friday after authorities noticed a higher number of flu-like deaths than normal in recent weeks.

"It is a virus that mutated from pigs and then at some point was transmitted to humans," Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova told the Televisa network.

Pandemic in Mexico City?

PESTILENCE!
Luke 21:11--And great earthquakes will be in divers places, and famines, and pestilences: and fearful sights, and great signs will there be from heaven.

I have been watching the news on blogs and such about flu and swine flu these last 48 hours. Wednesday it popped on a few Canadian news outlets that Canadians returning from Mexico were coming down with flu and dying. That got my attention:

Alert Issued After Serious Mystery Ailment Affects Canadians Returning From Mexico
"The mystery malady has puzzled experts both here and in Mexico, who have yet to identify exactly what it is. The ailment seems to primarily affect young adults who went on their trips healthy but failed to return in the same condition. The symptoms begin as a flu-like illness and rapidly deteriorate to respiratory distress and breathing difficulties. Doctors in Mexico are well aware of its presence. At least 20 people have died there so far - mostly patients between the ages of 25 and 44."

Then the next day, (Thursday) outbreaks of a new swine flu were affecting people in CA and TX, and the swine flu strain was genetically new and unfamiliar to scientists. Scientists were visibly concerned that none of the affected had been near a pig, meaning the strain had mutated into human-to-human contact...

CDC confirms 7 cases of swine flu in humans
"A total of seven cases of a previously undetected strain of swine flu have been confirmed in humans in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. None of the patients has had direct contact with pigs. Five of the cases have been found in California, and two have been found in Texas, near San Antonio..."

Then mainstream news outlets Thursday afternoon started reporting that scientists were 'stymied', 'puzzled' and 'scrambling' about this new swine flu:

Swine Flu Infects Seven; Genetic Make-Up Has Scientists Stymied
• Swine flu cases in US, mystery ailment in Mexico have experts scrambling

Then overnight Thursday into Friday 'Twitters' started to go out from people in Mexico City about a pandemic but, nothing on the news at that point yet: ("RodrigoMx is a journalist in Baja Mexico)

@RodrigoMx: WHO says 800 cases on influenza in Mexico, 60 killed... thats pretty serious... they don't know what kind of influenza is...

@BreakingNews The World Health Organization says there are near 800 cases of influenza en Mexico; 7 in the United States.

@RodrigoMx: Mexico City is in a virtual state of siege today. No schools, govt says public may star indoors...

@BreakingNews: World Health Organization says it had activated its Strategic Health Operations Centre because new swine flu in US, flu in Mexico.

Friday morning World Health Organization admitted there were flu cases in Mex City but downplayed the seriousness in the Main Stream News article:

Mexico shuts schools in flu scare
"Mexico is canceling classes for millions of children in the heart of the country on Friday after influenza killed around 20 people in recent weeks. About 79 people, possibly ill with the flu, are being treated in Mexico and that number has not increased in recent days, the Health Ministry said."

But we now know different. Not having to rely on 'Main Stream News,' people on the ground are reporting the situation is much more serious. They are going to use the army in Mexico City to attempt to close down exits, they closed all schools, and WHO is setting up a command post, and, just to make things interesting, by 8am Friday,

"The Public Health Agency of Canada has raised the pandemic surveillance alert from a Level 1 to a Level 2. Grondin said this was "not common" but stressed the move was to signify their increased level of vigilance..."

Now, US 'very concerned' about swine flu outbreak
"WASHINGTON (AFP) — US medical authorities expressed strong concern Friday about an unprecedented multi-strain swine flu outbreak that has killed at least 60 people in Mexico and infected seven people in the United States. "It's very obvious that we are very concerned. We've stood up emergency operation centers," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) spokesman Dave Daigle told AFP. One major source of concern was that the virus included strains from different types of flu."

"This is the first time that we've seen an avian strain, two swine strains and a human strain," said Daigle, adding that the virus had influenza strains from European and Asian swine, but not from North American swine."

So you can see how fast this all unfolded!

Go to SickCity to track twitter mentions of flu in any city in any nation